Examine the Nexus (Link) Between Climate Change and Conflict in Africa

Climate change will lead to mass migration of populations hence resulting into conflict
Climate change has been associated with migration of populations who have been affected by the effects of climate change such as drought and floods. As the affected populations move in search of more accommodating places (safe space), they are likely to find themselves invading the space of other communities. This will cause the receiving communities to rise and fight back by engaging in violent conflict as they try to protect their territory and this could just be another source of conflict. Migration of populations amounts pressure on resources in the receiving region whereby it increases competition over the resources in the receiving region. It makes the situation a matter of survival for the fittest and this may lead more worrying situation because the possibility of violent conflict escalating becomes more evident. In Kenya, we have witnessed communities from northern part of the country move away from their region in such of water and pasture for their livestock in other regions and this movement has always resulted in violent conflict and attack which has seen people lose lives in such scenarios.
Climate change will lead to unstable governance and State Failure hence leading to conflict
Climate change in Africa will lead to state weakness and failure. When the government fails to meet the expectations of its citizens, there is likely to be situations of social unrest and coup. Most African states are still struggling with its fair share of corruption and poor governance. Effects of climate change are likely to add pressure to the already existing struggles in government leaderships which might be too much for the government to manage or handle. Climate change will reduce resource availability in many regions of African states. As rivers and lakes continue to shrink, forests disappear and drought becomes more severe, it will make the lives of people more unbearable. Resource scarcity may be too severe to contain without negative upshots and this may lead to unstable governance of most African states hence leading to its failure. The situation is likely to worsen and there are likely to be cases of social unrest as people demand for the government to intervene and contain the situation. Communities are likely to rise against each other as they fight for the already shrinking resources and this may escalate into violent conflict. The governments of the affected states will find it difficult to contain the situation because of its already weak institutions and this may be another loophole for unending conflict.
Climate change influences the emergence of armed groups and this will result in conflict
As natural resources continue becoming scarce due to the effects of climate change, the militia group take advantage of the situation to conquer the territories with resources mostly oceans and lake and then take full control of it and uses it to stage attack against neighboring states. When they take control of natural resources such as rivers, lakes and oceans, communities that rely on livelihoods such as fishing definitely lose their sources of livelihood. They become jobless, hopeless and more vulnerable. The militia groups takes advantage of this to recruit such people into their group because they have resources and they promise their families good life by providing them with income mostly money. Most of these people have no other source of livelihood to support their families and so they end up in the militia groups who in turn are radicalized and used for terrorism acts in several states hence destabilizing security systems of such countries. This later leads to continued conflict between state governments and the militia group in the attempt of trying to contain them. In a nutshell, we can say that climate change contributes to creating a fragile environment in which militia groups can thrive and when they thrive they use the opportunity to weaken states by staging continuous terrorism attacks to its people. A good example is the Al shabab in the Horn of Africa (Indian Ocean) and Boko Haram in Lake Chad who have taken control of the ocean and lake respectively and uses the place to stage attacks in neighboring countries. For instance, Kenya has had its own fair share of attacks from Al shabab where more people continue losing lives due to continuous attacks in northern parts of Kenya. The existence of the militia group in the region has increased conflict in the Horn of Africa and states have continued to engage in fighting the militia group with hope that one day they will contain the situation and return sanity in the region.



Shrinking of resources due to climate change will cause elites to exploit the vulnerable communities and this will result into conflict
When climate change causes substantial reduction in resources such as water and loss of arable land for agriculture and pasture, it may result to intensified competition between elites and the local communities, over their exploitation. This may happen when the leaders, businessmen and other notables rely on such resources to uphold their political and influential networks. During such competition, elites may be drawn to mobilize their people against the interest of other elites and cause the situation to escalate into an open violence since the other elites will also fight back for them same.
Climate change will lead to competition over resources among the communities and this will escalate to violent conflicts among the affected communities
Climate change has led to shrinking of resources such as water and arable land in most parts on Africa. Prolonged drought continues to be experienced in most parts of Africa. The consequences of such factors are that, it creases resource competition among pastoral groups which in turn increases conflict. When resources such as water and pasture become more and more scarce due to global warming, communities are forced to migrate in search of water and pasture for their livestock and this migration has always contributed to conflict. A good example is the conflict that continues to be experience in North Western part Kenya where communities such as Turkana and Pokot have always been in war as they fight over water and pasture. There is no doubt therefore that climate change has been the driver of conflict that has been continued to be experience in some regions in Africa especially in areas where the population rely on natural resources as sources of their livelihoods.

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Smwenje answered the question on November 14, 2018 at 12:17