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Forecasting is the attempt to predict the future by using qualitative or quantitative means. Discuss the qualitative and QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS available for managers in predicting...

      

Forecasting is the attempt to predict the future by using qualitative or quantitative means. Discuss the qualitative and QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS available for managers in predicting the future.

  

Answers


Wilfred
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS are the mathematical techniques used to analyse past data to come up
with past patterns, so as to guide about the future. These include moving average, exponential
smoothing and time series decomposition.
- Moving averages method removes cyclical movements by getting averages of past data. The average can be
weighted or un-weighted. The averages are changed with additional data.
- Exponential smoothing on the other hand uses weights that decrease exponentially with time. The new
forecast uses the previous forecast and a proportion of the forecast error (difference between current
observation and previous forecast. The proportion is the smoothing constant.
- Time series decomposition involves deseasonalising data by use of moving averages then fixing a relationship that
can be used to predict the future
-Qualitative techniques use other techniques like judgment, intuition, experience and flare. It is used
where past data is not available and where long term forecast is required. These methods include
Delphi method, market research and historical analogy.
- Delphi method is a technique designed to obtain expert consensus for a particular forecast. Experts
independently answer a sequence of questionnaires in which responses of one questionnaire is used
to produce the next questionnaire. So information is passed to other experts whereby judgments
are refined with more information and experience.
- Market research involves the surveys of opinions, market data analysis and questionnaires designed to get reaction
of market to a particular product or design. This is mainly important in short term.
- Historical analogy involves looking at data of a similar product being studied. The similar product is analysed
through its lifecycle.
Wilfykil answered the question on February 20, 2019 at 10:31


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