Date Posted: 3/14/2017 11:00:14 AM
Posted By: 4520 Membership Level: Gold Total Points: 5251
The paper reviews relevant scholarly literature on the potential biophysical and economic impacts of climate change in the Latin America. Latin America is composed of 33 countries most of which are experiencing dramatic climate change. South America is already battling with a weather war against frequent hurricanes, landslides, and floods. The major cause of the ongoing climate change is the excessive emission of carbon dioxide particularly due to high consumption of fossil fuels in South America. The only past studies considered in the review are those from 2015 to the present because they give more concise information of what is happening in South America given climate change dynamic. The bulk of journal sources used in this study relates to climate change due to the emission of gasses that cause global warming and how climate change affect agricultural productivity and public health in South America. Undoubtedly, climate change and global warming are taking away the habitats of numerous species in South America and threatening food security in the future. Global climate change has been a gradual process which has only escalated in the recent past. According to Seo (2010), climate change is the severest and most complicated issue impacting the planet and its people in the 21st century. For numerous years, the earth’s temperature has remained within a range that supports human life in a diverse ecosystem. However, Andersen, Verner, & Weibelt (2016) state that the birth of industrial age has seen the incredible alteration in temperature as a consequence of global warming which is caused by a rise in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel. The fossil fuel energy consumption in Latin America and the Caribbean was estimated to be 73.01 in 2011 by the World Bank. Among the highest fossil fuels used in Latin America include coal, oil, natural gas and petroleum all of which emit significant amounts of carbon dioxide. Furthermore, the global climate change is mainly due to unsustainable human activities. The carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has increased by 120 parts per million from 1750 to 2015 (Riojas Rodriguez et al., 2016). They further argue that human beings are the only one of the earth’s inhabitants but their ability to exercise of rationality allow them to alter the reproductive movement of the biosphere. In South America, precipitation patterns are changing, temperatures are increasing, and some regions are experiencing severe weather phenomena like heavy rains and hurricanes. Climate change impacts in South America ranges from rapid melting of Andean glaciers to overwhelming floods and droughts. Andersen, Verner, & Weibelt (2016) conducted research to investigate the gender variation in vulnerability and resilience to various shocks including climate change and climate variability for three South American countries: Peru, Brazil, and Mexico. They found out that households that have aggregate incomes which is less than the national poverty line and which are poorly spread are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts while those with income above the poverty line and well diversified are more resilient. The research concluded that female-headed households across the three nations tend to be less vulnerable and more resilient compared to male headed households despite the fact that later often have better education levels.Additionally, Hernandez (2016) studied the effect of climate change in South America and explored its security implications from the viewpoint of interdependence between vulnerability and national security. He found out that the ongoing climate change in Latin America poses a significant threat to food security and human health and rises human exposure to extreme events. Moreover, climate change has been found to constitute a threat to rights, security, and sovereignty of the gradual loss of territory. Particularly, climate change threatens South American countries’ human well being including threats to agriculture and food security, water, health, human settlements and coastal regions (Rodriguez & Meza, 2016). They argued that it is so unfortunate that the greater effect is in store for the section that is the Latin America, as both the atmosphere and the water masses like oceans, continue to change swiftly. He added that they would be unable to transport due to the unfavorable weather.Similar research was conducted by Seo in 2010. The study points out that the supplies of food and water in South America was going to be interrupted definitely. This is because, the infrastructure, towns, and cities which are required to handle their sustenance will be progressively at risk. They stated that the health of human and welfare would be unfavorably affected, end to end with the natural environments. Edwards, Robberts, & Lagos (2016) argue that whereas an increase in atmospheric CO2 support growth and productivity of plants, rise in temperature can substantial lower crop duration, increase crop respiration rates, impact survival and distribution of pest populations and may escalate nutrient mineralization in soils, reduce fertilizer use efficiency and increase evapotranspiration. The research found out that developing counties especially in South America and Latin America which have diverse agro-climatic regions, challenging geographies, growing economies and sundry agricultural production systems are more prone to the impact of climate change because of substantial reliance on agriculture for livelihood. De Moraes, et al. (2017) suggest several strategies that can help the South America mitigate exposure to adverse effects of climate change. Among the strategies include adapting conservative and climate smart agriculture technologies, use of water-saving technologies such as micro-irrigation, restoration of degraded soils and waters, supporting carbon sequencing and promotion of biodiversity campaign at both regional and national level. In addition, Kober, et al. (2016) analyzed macroeconomic consequences of greenhouse emission intervention in Latin America up to 2050 using a multi-model comparison approach. The alternative cost concepts used for assessing impacts of climate change intervention policy in macroeconomics are carbon price, GDP change, welfare change and consumption change. Among these cost concepts, Kober, et al. (2016) report GDP and consumer spending as measures of net economic cost. The study drew four significant conclusions for the Latin America and its two biggest economies, Brazil and Mexico. Firstly, an emission drop of between 30% and 70% with a simple mean of between 40 and 50% is estimated by 2050 at carbon prices of $165/tCo2. Secondly, the consumer spending impact is projected to range between -5% and +1% by 2050. Thirdly, the CO2 price regime and recycling effect on GDP is estimated to be between -6% and +1% by 2050. Finally, the cross country comparison data is comparable to lowering the annual average GDP growth rate by between -0.08% and 0.04%. Kober, et al. (2016) conclude that their study’s results indicate that countries in Latin America can anticipate experiencing limited impacts on consumer spending and GDP in the medium term with carbon prices of about $15/tCO2. Furthermore, a similar research was conducted by Van der Zwaan, et al. (2016) but this research focused on opportunities for energy technology disposition under climate change alleviation efforts in Latin America. Specifically, they analyzed the resources and technologies, especially for electricity generation which could be cost optimal in the energy industry to reduce CO2 emissions in Latin America substantially. Latin America has abundant biomass resources which play a significant role in energy supply. Consequently, Rodriguez & Meza (2016) observe that stricter climate policies leading to greater use of biomass in power facilities in combination with CCS can produce negative CO2 emission. South America has the potential of expanding its hydroelectricity power capacity to meet its energy needs and reduce fossil fuel consumption. According to Rosegrant (2016), the current overall power production of Latin America is 800 TWh, and the region has a leeway of expanding hydroelectricity production to mitigate the climate change by 50% and can reach an optimum level of 75%. Their research also points out that South America can use other renewable energy sources such as wind and solar to meet its energy needs. This is particularly important as the world promotes greener energy solutions to save the planet from the impending climate crisis. In contrast, rolling out greener energy solutions for South America is not an easy task. South America can use renewable energy sources such as biomass, hydropower and geothermal energy. Nevertheless, the use of nuclear power diffusion is likely to be limited even when some prospects emerge in some of the Latin America countries (Jet, et al., 2016). Among the possible limitations of generation of nuclear power include reactor accidents, hazards of radioactive waste, national security threat due to the proliferation of nuclear technology and materials to terror groups, long construction times and massive investments. De Moraes, et al. (2017) propose two economy-wide policy mitigations to encourage low carbon energy consumption: carbon taxes and abatement. The particular measures suggested include subsidies, research, development, demonstration and deployment programs, loan guarantees and feed-in tariffs. An effective implementation of these proposals means that the South America public sector has a huge role to fulfill in the shift towards a low-carbon energy consumption in the region.Moreover, adaptations to climate effects in general and in the agriculture sector in South America is not a new concept. In fact, natural and socioeconomic systems have continually been adapting independently or as per a plan to a changing environment from time immemorial. According to Hernandez (2016), the proper mix of adaptations can substantially lower the degree of probable adverse effects on productivity in the agriculture sector. Studies have indicated that the agricultural industry is specifically adaptable to climate change given the technological, resources and management changes can be carried out relatively swiftly. However, as (Rodriguez & Meza (2016) state, to formulate efficient adaptation policies in Latin America, an understanding the adaptation process in vital. This encompasses information on steps in the adaptation process, decision bases, contingencies, factors that dampen adaptation and adaptation performance measures. Although the adaptation measures are many, every measure needs to be site- and sector specific and mirror numerous decision rules. Fernandez et al. (2016) hold that these needs to be reflect the degree to which the climate change is occurring, technological knowledge and assumptions made on the governmental policies in different regions over time. Furthermore, Riojas et al. (2016) looks at various joint bodies formed in South America to address climate change. Among the organizations covered in their study include ECLAC (Economic Commission for Latin and the Caribbean) and FAO/RLC (Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean of the Food and Agricultural Organization). Intergovernmental organizations are more effective in addressing climate change as opposed to each government working in isolation since climate change affect the entire region. According to Riojas et al. (2016) non-integration of climate change policies in the agriculture sector has only been detrimental to the entire South America region. Consequently, they advocate for a holistic approach to climate change across all the sectors of the Latin America region which needs to be enforced equally across all the countries in the region. Among the key recommendations given by Riojas et al. (2016) include inclusion of agriculture in the national policy agenda, need for prompt climate change dialogue among South America countries, and joint comprehensive assessment of risks and vulnerabilities for climate adaptation and sustainability of regional agriculture sector as well as need for centralized regional cooperation and financing. Such regional efforts will lead to a better campaign and redress of climate change in South America which was become synonymous with adverse climate conditions and impacts for a couple of decades. Further, with diverse impacts of climate change in South America manifesting in key sectors such as agriculture, the type of adaptation option and implementation process will be critical. Whereas climate change variability effects will be primarily local, climate change will impact the long-run patterns in South America. The significance of adapting to climate variability has been stressed in numerous researches. Spikin et al., (2016) state that stimuli related to climate change are not only constrained to changes in normal annual conditions, but also encompass variability and related extremes. The impact of climate change has been founded to have substantial impact on developing nations (Van der Zwaan, et al., 2016). It is worth noting that most of the countries in South America are categorized as developing nations. Contrarily, the research focusing on developed nations, for instance, Rodriguez & Meza (2016)concur that the impact of climate change in the South America pivot on changes in climate variability and extreme weather events. In another research based on crop production in the America, Plath, et al. (2016) find a greater irrigation requirements in South America and decreased demands for irrigation in the northern and western regions for both higher mean and and extremes in climate. Similarly, Rosegrant (2016) finds that there is a growing pressure to address global issues such as biodiversity loss and climate change. The study finds that climate change is a significant threat to biodiversity in the modern world. As a result, interdisciplinary teams are being created by funding agencies to ease the complexities of addressing climate change among the Latin America nations. This research finds out that Europe is the biggest donor for research and development institutes in South America that focus on climate change in the region. Similar approaches have been shown by French National Research Agency that has partnered with Mexico and Brazil and other 12 South America nations to preserve biodiversity that is at the brink of extinction in South America.Despite the various ambitious international interests in mitigating climate change in South America, some of the nations seem not to be prioritizing climate change. This is unfortunate given that most of the South America nations face uneven climate patterns that have generated far reaching consequences. According to Dangles, et al. (2016) Latin America has rich diversity of both species and ecosystems and this makes the region exceptional in the American continent. However, their study notes that despite the fortune funding from international agencies and donors, some of the South America counties are mismanaging these funds. Among the effects of climate change funds diversion include increased environmental degradation, escalation of food and water insecurity, health and social problems. Nevertheless, with diligent management of climate funds, there is hope for the South America region. Dangles, et al. (2016) research finds that rise of international scientific cooperation has provided scientific approach to climate change policies. This is a major boost to South America since most of the nations are limited in the amounted of budget that they can allocate to improvement of their scientific capacity.Moreover, there are still much to be done to make international scientific cooperation yield meaningful solutions to climate change. Hernandez (2016) argue that some of the South America countries operate different international collaboration that conflict the regional goals of other counties operating a different cooperation with another European country. They cite the case of Mexico which has working scientific collaboration with Italy and Netherlands where they find out that these nations relied heavily on international and regional collaboration to improve scientific production. Another set of countries is the partnership between Brazil and the United Kingdom which mainly engages in bilateral collaboration with designated nations or states. Consequently, greater effort should be put in place to nurture cooperation within Latin American countries if regional integration is perceived as the key target. According to Hernandez (2016) fragmented efforts to addressing climate change is only self-destructive among the South America nations. As a result, consolidation of links through strategic partnership is the fruitful path that South America can undertake to address the changing climate within the region.According to Melillo, et al. (2016) Latin America has been endowed incredible diversity that it needs to safeguard against extinction and degradation. The history of South America indicates that South America has enjoyed diverse social development which over the last couple of decades has been threatened by climate change. As earlier mentioned, South America significantly depends on natural resources to meet its energy needs and sustain species’ life. However, there are several key factors that influence the progress of Latin America: influence of social movements, politics, education attainment and the predominant culture. According to Spikin (2016) South America has a higher degree of social exclusion and social inequality which has been a toxic seed in regional progress. Moreover, they argue that in Latin America, poverty and environmental degradation tend to be strongly correlated. In such a case, measures and policies of adaptation and climate change needs to consider strategies for mitigating poverty and reducing inequality. This research contributes to the bulk of studies that hypothesizes that addressing climate change needs to first address human factors that force man to degrade the environment. Spikin et al. (2016) recognizes that South America is converging to Homer-Dixon hypothesis that severe environmental dilapidation was going to trigger three primary conflict: (1) relative deprivation conflicts, (2) simple scarcity conflicts and (3) group-identity conflicts. Spikin et al. (2016) further argues that three decades later, the evidence of real occurrence of this hypothesis remains hotly contested. Categories 1 and 3 infer that it is environmental pressure that trigger conflict which then result in migration. Contrarily, category 2 infers that environmentally-induced migration lead to conflict. Recently, there is an ongoing conflict between the United States and Mexico that has made Trump government to vow to erect a wall to prevent illegal migration into the U.S. However, the phenomenon is best resolved by research of climate change and conflict and research on migration and conflict which are both past the scope of the current study. Water resources scarcityWater sector has two major types of adaptations to climate change: demand-side and supply-side. The demand-side focus on decisions seeking to modify the quantity of water demanded through strategies to improve water use efficiency. On the other hand, the supply-side measures seeks to modify the quantity of water that is available for consumption through ways such as movement of water from one place to another, introduction of new water sources and reservoir impoundment. Like with all adaptation to climate change, the impact of adaptation depends partially on South America’s physical and technical efficiency and partially on implementation rates. The simultaneous occurrence of the two means that a country is committed to climate adaptation and will certainly experience greater improvement in climate conditions. The evaluation of the South America implications of climate change for water resources scarcity can be assessed using two approaches. The first approach is resources per capita index and the second method entails comparison of withdrawals with the available amount of water (Melillo, et al., 2016). They carried a study that aimed at measuring the global cost of adapting water supply systems to survive with climate change. Rosegrant (2016) methodology to calculate the dimensions of reservoir required to offer a given yield with a particular standard under climate change and appraised the cost of any incremental storage using a standardized cost functions. The significant findings of this research as that adaptation to climate change would cost about $12 billion annually up to 2050 and the reservoir storage would have to grow by between 34% and 36% by 2050 to sustain yields. The underlying assumption made in this study is that there is perfect forecast, hence probably under casts of adaptation costs. Another related research was conducted by Kober, et al. (2016) with an aim of estimating the efficiency of the aforementioned three demand-side adaptation measures. Among the measures that were applied include irrigation withdrawal measures and growth in water recycling to lower municipal withdrawals. Kober, et al. (2016) concluded that without adaptation, the number of people residing in water-stressed basins in the world would rise from 1.8 billion in 2000 to about 3.3 billion in 2050. Another research conducted by Fernandez et al. (2016) focuses on how local mitigation and adaptation strategies can be combined and be “upscaled” to be integrated into global climate agenda. Their research covered the Bahian semiarid area which is marked by regular severe droughts. They found out that local populations in this region had developed measures to respond to their climate reality. Further, their research concluded that trade-offs can be dodged and synergies exploited for a short-term and over a restricted spatial scale. They also suggest that some of the local strategies that they identified could be replicated in other semiarid regions in Latin America as well as across the globe.According to Rios Flores et al. (2016), a changing climate in South America is not a new phenomenon. They continue to state that many countries in South America are fighting a weather battle against frequent hurricanes, landslides and horrid flash floods. Their research considered climate patterns from the past 60 years and made a future forecasts up to 2100. According to Rios Flores et al. (2016) one major issue that researcher still face is lack of current climate data and records for South America. Nonetheless, they overcome this limitation and succeeds to present the future and present outlook of the climate trends in South America. The current weather data indicates that South America is experiencing a trend of rising temperature. According to Rios Flores et al. (2016) the occurrence of both extreme minimum and maximum temperatures in most countries in South America has increased. The precipitate indices in South America show that despite there being no substantial rise in the total amount are established, rainfall events are escalating and the southwest regions are becoming wetter while the northeast areas are becoming drier Rios Flores et al. (2016). Scientifically, the new trend can be attributed to shift I El Nino Southern Oscillation.Another study by Hertel & Rosch (2016) finds out that drought will most likely be in some seasons and regions in South American because of lowering precipitation and increased evaporation in Amazon and Northeast Brazil. de Moraes, et al. (2017) concur with this findings and add that annual changes in temperature in 2010-2040 indicate rise of 2ºC in southern Amazonia and a small rise of 1 ºC in South America. They further projects that by 2040, the temperature rise in southern Amazonia could reach 3-4 ºC and 2 ºC across the South America region. Another study by Hertel & Rosch (2016) seeks to explain how the warming will affect South America agricultural production. Basically, weather patterns affect productivity especially in the phonological phases of flowering and ripening. Their research found out that in South-eastern South America, areas that show trends of more rainfall would experience an increase in normal food productivity but this will only last till the mid of the century. They also project that parts of northeast Brazil and Andean region would experience temperature rise and decline in rainfall and this would lower productivity in the short term and this will be a significant food threat to the poor households in those areas. In addition, Brazil is expected to only support only one potato production in only a few months compared to the current production all year. The research indicate that the greatest warming is expected to reach 5.8 ºC in 2100 and this would make coffee production in South America regions like Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo unfeasible. They further state that South America is going to be a critical food producing region in the continent hence adaptation measures needs to be implemented early. The adaptation measures proposed include management of water use and generic improvements. Judging from this research, the future of South America agriculture production is pegged on the expediency of undertaking adaptation measures. Long term adaptationsClimate change in South America can be addressed through short-term and long-term adaptations. Much of what has been discussed above has been on short-term adaptations hence it will be prudent to review literature that covers long-term adaptations. Melillo, et al. (2016) argue that long-term adaptations needs to be framed in the future because warming is primarily a concern of the future. They further hold that long-term adaptation plans have been very rare today since warming has been very minimal than to a flaw of governments. They further argue that adapting prematurely is not to the best interest of nations and that there are handful of climate change that call for response today. Melillo, et al. (2016) suggest that one way South America farmers could adopt a long-term adaptation is by changing their crop type and location. Among the options offered in their research include migration to more robust varieties which are better suited to the new climate. They further suggest in cases where agriculture is no longer feasible, South America farmers can convert their land to game ranching. However, farmers cannot succeed in isolation given that institutional failures in agriculture can demotivate South American farmers’ effort to manage adaptation strategies. de Moraes, et al. (2017) suggest long-term adaptations from a policy level. Their research is motivated by the fact that policies that South American governments will pursue will influence the direction the agriculture sector will take. For instance, a policy that support specific crop prices can be detrimental when climate change renders such crop unfeasible in a changed environment. Another long-term adaptation measure suggested by previous studies is development of new technologies and modernization. According to Rodriguez & Meza (2016) climate change policies needs to be implemented across all the sectors that endangers climate. The focus of their research was on air pollution management in Latin America through assessing the status of the legal framework for air quality control in all the South America countries. This is among a few studies that cover all the South America nations. They noted that most of the countries in South America to do maintain official information on ground level air pollutants. They recommend use of co-benefit of air pollution control for health and climate as a model for policy and decision-making in South America. Rosegrant (2016) a similar research but covering agricultural sector was performed by(Jet, et al. (2016) who suggested use of mechanical and biological agricultural technologies to ensure food security in the face of changing climate in South America.
Next: Benefits of playing computer games to kidsPrevious: Women at Work and How they are Relevant in the Workplaces
Get premium membership